| Author | Thet Yee Win |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-99-8 |
| Subject(s) | Flood forecasting--Thailand--Prasae River
|
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master
of Engineering. |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | The present study explores a new approach for the non-linear analysis and modeling of
time series based on the Back Propagation Neural Networks model for the problem of the
daily stream flow forecasting, which is of great importance from the view point of water
resources development and planning. The Neural Networks provide model free solutions and
hence can be expected to be appropriate for study conditions. The neural network suitable for
the application here belongs to the feed forward type that has the ability to approximate any
continuous function.
The Neural Network model based on back propagation algorithm was applied for
daily flood forecasting at five stations (Ban Chak Khrok, Ban Chankho, Ban Ra-Ok, Prasae
Reservoir and River basin outlet) of the Prasae River Basin in Thailand. Daily discharge and
rainfall data for Prasae River Basin were used in both calibration and verification
respectively. The combination of Neural Network model and suitable Autoregressive Moving
Average model, which based on the adaptive error correction process, was used for real time
flood forecasting. The daily inflow to the proposed Prasae Reservoir was estimated based on
the discharge area relation and areal distribution.
The combination of (NN+AR) models could highly increase the NN model efficiency
if NN model is based on forward pass only without the back propagation algorithm. The study
of this combination enhances modeling and forecasting capacities and makes flood
forecasting of the daily stream flow more accurate. |
| Year | 2000 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Tawatchai Tingsanchali; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Sutat Weesakul;Babel, Mukand Singh ; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Thai-Aid-Grant; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2000 |