| Author | Nisuchcha Maporn. |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-10-15 |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the
degree of Master of Engineering in
Water Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Successful operation of any water supply system is above all a component of an
accurate forecast. In Thailand, MW A is responsible for supply water for Bangkok
and it vicinities. Because MWA had predicted future demand as a part of
improvement projects using the traditional technique that there was no relation
between the demand and climate variables, this research was inspired to forecast
future demand and investigate the effects of sensitive variables. With projection
of climate conditions from either downscaling of HadCM3 or correcting bias of
ECHAM4/PRECIS and future socio-economic conditions, three different models
of long term, medium term and short term demand were developed to forecast
2011 to 2030 water demands. Master models were further developed to
investigate the influences of prominent factors. Apart from this, comparison with
MWA's predictions and different models were analyzed and discussed.
Results for downscaled HadCM3 and con-ected ECHAM4/PRECIS m
representing the present day climate variables yielded excess of 85%, therefore
their projections of future climate are acceptable for further use. The water
demand forecasting achieved accuracy of 76%, 95% and 96% for short term,
medium term and long term respectively. Annual demand prediction under A2
and B2 scenarios are not significantly different. Socio-economic variables
(number of populations, per capita GPP, number of houses, number of
connections and tariff) were highly c01Telated with the observed demand. Socioeconomic variables have more influence on long term future demand while
climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, evaporation,
relative humidity and rainfall) have more influences on medium term and short
term future demand. Sensitive variables were similar in some month of medium
term and short term demand. Water demand generated from long term model was
the most acceptable in term of continuity, and was proved to be more reliable
than the prediction from MW A. The results of this study should assist the MW A
or any further study as a beneficial guideline to help understand the knowledge of
influence of variables affecting water demand forecasts and deal with
management of the water resources problems in the region. |
| Year | 2012 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Babel, Mukand S. |
| Examination Committee(s) | Perret, Sylvain R. ;Sutat Weesakul ;Jourdain, Damien |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Royal Thai Government Fellowship
|
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2012 |