| Author | Marpaung, Charles O. P. |
| Call Number | AIT Diss. no. ET-98-2 |
| Subject(s) | Demand-side management (Electric utilities)--Indonesia
|
| Note | A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of
Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | This study examines economy-wide environmental and the utility planning
implications of electricity generation system expansion in Indonesia based on integrated
resource planning (IRP) and compares the same to those under traditional utility planning
(TUP) framework.
A mixed integer programming based IRP model has been used in this study to carry out
generation expansion planning. An approach has been developed to examine the roles of the
supply-side effect (i.e., the changes in fuel- and technology-mixes) and the demand-side effect
(i.e., the change in electricity demand due to the adoption of efficient technologies at the final
use) to the total pollutant mitigations due to the adoption of IRP instead of TUP. The results
show that both the supply- and demand-side effects would act towards the reduction of C02,
S02 and NOx emissions. The demand-side effect is found to mitigate the pollutants higher than
the supply-side effect.
Economy-wide environmental implications are analyzed by using an Input-Output
framework. An analytical framework has been developed to assess the total economy-wide
changes in emissions of key pollutants (C02, S02, and NOx) as well as the contributions of
direct- and indirect-demand effects. Total changes in the emission of pollutants due to IRP (as
compared to the emissions ·under TUP) are decomposed into four effects: final demand effect
(i.e., the change in emissions associated with changes in final demand), fuel mix effect (i.e.,
the change in emissions due to variation in fuel mix), structural effect (i.e., the change in
emissions due to changes in technological coefficients under IRP as compared to that under
TUP) and joint effects (i.e., the interactive effects between or among the final demand-, fuel
mix- and structural-effects). The final demand effect is further decomposed into three sub-effects, i.e., those related to (i) construction of power plants, (ii) electricity final demand and
(iii) final demand for electrical end-use appliances. The results show that the final demand-,
fuel mix- and structural-effects are all found to have contributed to the reduction of C02, S02
and NOx emissions. Among the four major components, the final demand effect is found to be
the most effective in the reduction of C02 and S02 emissions while the fuel mix effect is found
to be the most effective in the reduction of NO, emission.
Effects of including a constraint on permissible S02 emission from the power sector on
power sector development and the emissions of C02, S02 and NOx are also examined using the
IRP and TUP frameworks. Similar analysis with a constraint on C02 emission is also
conducted. The supply curves of S02 and C02 mitigations are derived from the analysis. The
results show that in the case of IRP, both the supply-side effect (i.e., the change in fuel- and
technology-mixes) and demand-side effect (i.e., the change in electricity demand due to the
change in DSM-mix) would act towards the reduction of C02, S02 and NOx emissions. The
supply-side effect is also found to be predominant to the total mitigations while the demand-side effect is negligible. The cost of S02 and C02 mitigations is found to be higher with the
absence of DSM options in the power sector pluming.
IV The study also analyses the environmental and utility planning implications of carbon
tax in the IRP framework. Total reductions of C02 emissions due to carbon tax in fuels are
decomposed into two parts, i.e., C02 mitigations due to the changes in fuel- and technology mixes as a result of changes in relative prices of fuels (supply-side effect) and those associated
with reductions in electricity demand due to a change in electricity price after carbon tax
(demand-side effect). The results show that at low tax rates, C02 mitigation due to demand-side effect is found to be higher than that due to the supply-side effect while the opposite is the
case at medium and high tax rates. |
| Year | 1998 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy Technology (ET) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Ram M.; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Surapong Chirarattananon ;Nagarur, Nagendra N. ;Hobbs, Benjamin F. ; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Okumenisches Studienwerk e.V., Germany
Christian University of Indonesia, Jakarta ; |
| Degree | Thesis (Ph.D) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1998 |