| Author | Kumar, Shakya Kishore |
| Call Number | AIT RSPR no. EV-91-02 |
| Subject(s) | Water consumption--Nepal--Kathmandu
|
| Note | A research study report submitted in the partial fulfillment of
the degree of Master of Engineering |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Three different approaches have been adopted in the
residential water demand forecasting in the city of Kathmandu,
Nepal. Two statistical models, one the econometric model and
another t h e time series ARIMA model, are developed based on the
time series and cross-sectional data and an endues method has been
used to estimate water demanded for different domestic activities
which can give an estimation of the future water quantity required
in the city.
The econometric model has established a relationship between
the monthly household water demand with the independent variables
like t h e average monthly temperature, the precipitation, household
size, the plumbing facilities, water supply duration in the
household and the economic status.
Residential water demand has been forecasted for the city
using the econometric mode l with the temperature and precipitation
projection data estimated on the basis of three global warming
models viz. GFDL, GISS and UMKO. Demand forecast is done for a
period of ten years with the base year population in December 1990
taken as 600,000 and projected with the constant growth rate of
4.2%. Other data incorporated in the model for forecasting are
based on the results of the field survey and some other studies and
experiences with certain assumptions.
The results from the model have shown that all the three
global warming models give similar results. Total water demand for
the year 1992 and 2000 a.d. are estimated to be equal to 18 and 38
billion liters /year respectively. Yearly water demand increases
with the annual rate of 11%.
Field survey data analysis for sample areas in kathmandu has
shown that the average demand at present is 72 l/c.d.
The time series ARIMA model has been used to forecast the
water demand for 10 years for a base year population of l000 in t he
sample area. Results for the sample area have been used to estimate
the water demanded for t h e same population and period as considered
in the econometric model. The result has shown that the quantity of
water demanded is low in comparison to the results of the econometric model.
The quantity of water demanded for different activities in
household uses has shown the average value of 72 l/c.d.
Water produced at present is not sufficient to meet the
demand. Ground water sources are used to meet nearly 40 % of the
total demand which has. Leakage and Wastage is one of the biggest
problem in the system which needs to control. As surface water
sources are not available near by the city, it would be necessary
to go for some other long-distance sources like the Melamchi Water
Supply Project to meet the future demand. |
| Year | 1991 |
| Type | Research Study Project Report (RSPR) |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Environmental Engineering and Management (EV) |
| Chairperson(s) | Schroder, Hans; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Harboe, Ricardo;Shrestha, Ram M.;Verink, Johan; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | World Health Organization; |
| Degree | Research Studies Project Report (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1991 |