| Abstract | The purpose of this study is to apply various techniques, especially the Analytic Hierarchy
Process (AHP), to energy technology/plant selection in landlocked country Nepal, where the traditional source of energy, the fuelwood, is proving insufficient to serve the domestic needs of the
people.
A model is developed which combines various factors as per the levels and which considers
the participatory action of the top, body - the national planning body - down to the level of the
individual users. National goal-oriented factors such as foreign exchange, revenues, employment
are some of the macro-level factors assigned under the national planners whereas elements like
traditional norms and convenience are placed under the users level. Besides, the briquetting plant
technology is evaluated using the AHP as well as the technology model developed by Sharif and
Sundararajan.
Data were collected from number of experts belonging to national bodies like National
Planning Commission and its affiliated bodies, Research organizations, Industrially related bodies,
energy organizations, and the academicians, through a structured questionnaire via individual
interview coupled at times with team discussion. To bring in more effectiveness, maintaining the
simplicity, arithmetic mean (average) is employed to form a consensus from group opinions on the
importance ratio of criteria and factors.
The findings are presented which includes both the relative importance (weights) and ranking
of each alternative. The opinions of the experts reflect the necessity of introduction and widespread
use of the hydro power plants in urban areas while biogas plants be used in the rural areas of Nepal
as viable replacements to the rapidly depleting fuel wood, to use as fuel and safeguard the ecological
balance too. The sensitivity analysis examines further, the importance of the criteria laid down and
the stability of the models. The specific technology evaluation of the briquetting technology adds
strength to develop combination of a suitable match for the national needs. Of the evaluated models
of briquetting technology the model from Taiwan gained top priority both from AHP and the Sharif
methodology.
Model development, experts opinion and consensus formation together indicate towards the
final ranking of the alternatives. Technology assessment, thus reflects its importance and usefulness
in situations where multi-criteria exist, the decision issue is somewhat complicated and a rich solution
is seeked for. |