Integrated risk analysis and mitigation of risk factors in hydropower dam projects in Pakistan using the Delphi method and Bayesian belief networks | |
| Author | Dawood, Alina |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.CM-26-11 |
| Subject(s) | Dams--Risk management--Pakistan Delphi method Bayesian statistical decision theory |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Engineering in Construction, Engineering and Infrastructure Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Pakistan is facing a serious energy crisis, with electricity shortages reaching 6,623 MW in 2024. These shortages have caused frequent outages and slowed economic growth. Although the country has more than 42 GW of hydropower potential, only 10,681 MW has been developed due to ongoing issues such as project delays, cost overruns, and weak performance. The 2022 floods, which affected around 33 million people, further showed the need for reliable and sustainable hydropower systems. However, dam construction involves high costs and risks due to uncertain site conditions, long project duration, multiple stakeholders, and large financial requirements.This study focuses on identifying and analyzing key risks in hydropower dam projects in Pakistan. A probabilistic approach was used to understand how different risks are connected and to suggest practical mitigation measures. Using the three round Delphi Method, expert opinions and literature were combined to identify risk factors, that were further evaluated to get the critical factors. ‘Ineffective construction planning and scheduling by the contractor’ ranked highest from Delphi method.A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model was developed to show relationships among these risks. The model estimated a 49.15% probability of project performance decline under normal conditions. Sensitivity analysis highlighted six major risks: delays in fund release, design errors, resettlement issues, poorly planned payment schedules, unsafe project locations, and lack of proper geological data.Interviews with experienced professionals helped identify the main causes behind these risks. Funding issues, political influence, bureaucratic delays and inadequate knowledge on importance of proper planning and design were identified as some of the main issues. Financial, technical and bureaucratic management along with institutional improvement were suggested as the major mitigation measures.Overall, the study shows that hydropower project performance depends on managing linked financial, technical, and social risks together. The findings provide practical guidance for improving project outcomes and support better planning and decision-making in Pakistan’s hydropower sector. |
| Year | 2026 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering (2026) |
| Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Construction Engineering and Infrastructure Management (CEIM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Santoso, Djoen san |
| Examination Committee(s) | Junaid, Muhammad;Roy, Joyashree |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | PMU-KPCIP-AIT Scholarship |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2026 |
 | |