A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal land reclamation projects in the Maldives | |
| Author | Rahman, Aishath Abdul |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.CM-26-12 |
| Subject(s) | Reclamation of land--Risk management--Maldives Delphi method Bayesian statistical decision theory |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Engineering in Construction, Engineering and Infrastructure Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Coastal land reclamation is central to infrastructure development in the Maldives, yet the construction stage of these projects remains poorly examined from a risk management perspective, with existing studies having largely focused on environmental and post-completion concerns. This study addresses that gap by identifying, prioritizing, and analyzing the interdependencies of construction stage risk factors in Maldivian coastal land reclamation projects.An integrated methodology combining the Delphi method and Bayesian Belief Network modeling was employed. A panel of experts, including clients, consultants, and contractors, participated in three rounds of Delphi. An initial pool of 167 risk factors was systematically reduced to 15 critical factors using the Importance Index threshold. The Financial and Economic category was most influential, contributing six of the fifteen factors, with the four highest ranked factors also belonging to this category.The 15 critical factors were used to construct a Bayesian Belief Network model. Sensitivity analysis identified six factors that are the most sensitive to the target node. Dredger production rate lower than expected, Design changes due to owner’s requirement change, Delayed dredger mobilization, Shortage of materials, Poor contract management, and Delays in making payments. The model further revealed two systematic risk propagation mechanisms, limited geotechnical site data initiating planning phase uncertainty, and payment delays acting as a trigger for subsequent disruptions across the project system.Mitigation strategies addressing these findings are proposed, with an emphasis on a comprehensive pre-construction site investigation, payment coordination between project owners and external funders, and design change control during construction. This study presents a risk assessment focused on the construction stage in coastal land reclamation projects in Small Island Developing States. The results illustrated the applicability of an integrated Delphi and Bayesian Belief Network approach in environments with limited empirical data. |
| Year | 2026 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering (2026) |
| Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Construction Engineering and Infrastructure Management (CEIM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Santoso, Djoen San |
| Examination Committee(s) | Chao, Kuo-Chieh;Pal, Indrajit |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Thai Pipe Scholarship;AIT Scholarship |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2026 |
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