Integrated assessment of climate and land use change effects on groundwater recharge and evaluation of adaptation strategies in the Swat River Basin, Pakistan | |
| Author | Sarfaraz, Rafia |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-26-08 |
| Subject(s) | Clamatic changes--Environmental aspects--Pakistan Groundwater recharge--Pakistan Hydrological models |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Groundwater is a critical water resource for domestic, agricultural, and ecological needs in the Swat River Basin, Pakistan. However, climate change and rapid land use transformations pose serious challenges to the sustainability of groundwater resources in the region. This study aims to evaluate the impacts of projected climate change and future land use changes on groundwater recharge and to propose adaptive strategies for enhancing groundwater recharge under changing environmental conditions. Climate change scenarios were developed using bias-corrected climate projections to assess future variations in temperature and precipitation over the Swat River Basin. Future land use change scenarios, including Business-as-Usual, Low Urbanization (conservation-oriented), and High Urbanization pathways, were simulated using the Dyna-CLUE model based on socio economic and biophysical drivers. These land use scenarios were then integrated with climate projections to analyze their combined effects on groundwater recharge. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were calibrated and validated to simulate basin scale hydrological processes, including surface runoff, infiltration, baseflow, and groundwater recharge. The model was applied to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of groundwater recharge under baseline and future climate–land use scenarios. Results indicate that climate change is likely to alter seasonal recharge patterns, while increasing urbanization significantly reduces groundwater recharge due to increased impervious surfaces. In contrast, conservation oriented land use scenarios enhance recharge through improved infiltration and reduced runoff. Adaptive groundwater recharge strategies specifically rainwater harvesting and impervious pavement interventions—were evaluated using model simulations to assess their effectiveness. The results indicate that the implementation of rainwater harvesting systems and modified pavement conditions can significantly enhance groundwater recharge and baseflow, particularly under future climate scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights for sustainable groundwater planning and policy development in mountainous river basins facing increasing pressures from climate change and land use dynamics. |
| Year | 2026 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering (2026) |
| Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WEM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam |
| Examination Committee(s) | Shanmugam, Mohana Sundaram;Hassan, Nurul Husna;Neupane, Sanjiv |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | ADB-KPCIP AIT Scholarship |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2026 |
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