Modelling future hydrological responeses of Jehlum River Basin using SWAT under climate and landuse change and evaluating nature-based solutions | |
| Author | Murtaza, Jannat |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-26-10 |
| Subject(s) | Hydrology--Jehlum River Basin Climatic changes--Jehlum River Basin Land use--Jehlum River Basin |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | The Jhelum River Basin is highly vulnerable to the combined impacts of climate change and land use/land cover (LULC) change, which significantly influence hydrological processes, water availability, and watershed sustainability. This study aimed to evaluate future hydrological responses of the basin under projected climate and LULC changes and to assess the effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) in improving basin resilience. Future LULC maps for 2050, 2075, and 2100 were generated using the CA-Markov model based on MODIS land cover data and multiple driving factors including terrain, proximity, and existing land cover conditions. Model validation showed strong agreement between predicted and observed 2024 LULC maps with a Kappa coefficient of 0.87, indicating excellent predictive performance. Results projected an increase in forest area by approximately 1,206 km² by 2100, while rangeland and agricultural areas were expected to decline. Future climate projections were developed using bias-corrected CMIP6 datasets from MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, and NorESM2-LM under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Analysis indicated substantial future warming, particularly under SSP5-8.5, with temperature increases reaching up to 7°C in far-future periods. Precipitation projections showed high temporal and seasonal variability across models and scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated using observed discharge data, achieving satisfactory model performance with NSE values of 0.73 and 0.69, and R² values of 0.82 and 0.80 for calibration and validation, respectively. Hydrological simulations revealed that future climate change scenarios generally increased surface runoff while reducing groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration. In contrast, future LULC scenarios increased recharge and evapotranspiration while reducing surface runoff. Integrated climate and LULC scenarios demonstrated combined impacts on basin hydrology and water balance components. To improve future watershed resilience, several Nature-Based Solutions including afforestation, wetlands, and check dams were evaluated through SWAT simulations. Afforestation scenarios reduced surface runoff and improved flood mitigation, wetlands enhanced groundwater flow and hydrological stability, while check dams influenced recharge and water yield through modified channel and groundwater parameters. The study concluded that Nature-Based Solutions can significantly improve hydrological resilience in the basin; however, their effectiveness depends on specific watershed management objectives and local hydrological conditions. |
| Year | 2026 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering (2026) |
| Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WEM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam |
| Examination Committee(s) | Natthachet Tangdamrongsub;Sundaram, S. Mohana;Hassan, Nurul Husna |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | ADB-KPCIP Scholarship |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2026 |
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